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3. Using Equities to Trade FX

Intermarket Analysis Cheat Sheet

Intermarket analysis studies the relationships between asset classes, typically currencies, bonds, commodities, and stocks.

It can help traders generate broader trading ideas, reveal potential market turning points, or confirm other analysis methods.

The price action of currencies is often driven by their relationship with commodities, bonds, and stock indices.

For example, here are some traditional intermarket relationships:

  • A falling U.S. dollar is viewed as positive for commodities prices, while a rising U.S. dollar is considered negative for commodities price.
  • Falling bond prices/rising interest rates tend to be negative for stocks, while rising bond prices/falling interest rates are normally good for stocks,
  • Rising commodities prices are historically a sign of economic growth which is good for the stock market and negative for bond prices.

Whew!

That’s a lot of intermarket correlations to remember! And that’s just a couple of intermarket relationship examples.

Here’s a neat one-page cheat sheet for you to bookmark and make it easy for you!

IFTHENWHY
GoldUSDDuring times of economic unrest, investors tend to dump the dollar in favor of gold. Unlike other assets, gold maintains its intrinsic value.
GoldAUD/USDAustralia is the third biggest gold producer in the world, sailing out about $5 billion worth a year.
GoldNZD/USDNew Zealand (rank 25) is also a large producer of gold.
GoldUSD/CHFOver 25% of Switzerland’s reserves are backed by gold. As gold prices go up, the pair moves down (CHF is bought).
GoldUSD/CADCanada is the 5th largest producer of gold in the world. As the gold price goes up, the pair tends to move down (CAD is bought).
OilUSD/CADCanada is one of the top 5 oil producers in the world. It exports around 5..5 million barrels of oil a day to the U.S. As oil prices go up, the pair moves down.
GoldEUR/USDSince both gold and euro are considered “anti-dollars,” if the price of gold goes up, EUR/USD may go up as well.
Bond yieldsLocal CurrencyAn economy that offers higher returns on its bonds attracts more investments. This makes its local currency more attractive than that of another economy, offering lower returns on its bonds.
DowNikkeiThe performance of the U.S. economy is closely tied to Japan.
NikkeiUSD/JPYInvestors consider the yen as a safe-haven and tend to seek it during periods of economic distress.

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