Month: September 2020

Even where a trader/customer’s medium to longer term view of the market may be ultimately correct, the trader may not be able to financially bear short-term unrealized losses, and may close out a position at a loss simply because he or she is unable to meet a margin call or otherwise sustain such positions. Thus, even where a trader’s view of the market is correct, and a currency position may ultimately turn around and become profitable had it been held, traders with insufficient capital may experience losses.

Errors in the communication, handling and confirmation of a trader’s orders (sometimes referred to as “out trades”) may result in unforeseen losses. Often, even where an out trade is substantially the fault of the dealing counter-party institution, the trader/customer’s recourse may be limited in seeking compensation for resulting losses in the account.

Low margin deposits or trade collateral are normally required in Foreign Exchange, (just as with regulated commodity futures). These margin policies permit a high degree of leverage. Accordingly, a relatively small price movement in a contract may result in immediate and substantial losses in excess of the amount invested. For example, if at the time of purchase, 10% of the price of a contract were deposited as margin, a 10% decrease in the price of the contract would, if the contract were then closed out, result in a total loss of the margin deposit before any deduction for brokerage commissions. A decrease of more than 10% would result in a total loss of the margin deposit. Some traders may decide to commit up to 100% of their account assets for margin or collateral for Foreign Exchange trading. Traders should be aware that the aggressive use of leverage will increase losses during periods of unfavorable performance.

Although the liquidity of OTC Forex is in general much greater than that of exchange traded currency futures, periods of illiquidity nonetheless have been seen, especially outside of US and European trading hours. Additionally, several nations or groups of nations have in the past imposed trading limits or restrictions on the amount by which the price of certain Foreign Exchange rates may vary during a given time period, the volume which may be traded, or have imposed restrictions or penalties for carrying positions in certain foreign currencies over time. Such limits may prevent trades from being executed during a given trading period. Such restrictions or limits could prevent a trader from promptly liquidating unfavorable positions and, therefore could subject the trader’s account to substantial losses. In addition, even in cases where Foreign Exchange prices have not become subject to governmental restrictions, the General Partner may be unable to execute trades at favorable prices if the liquidity of the market is not adequate. It is also possible for a nation or group of nations to restrict the transfer of currencies across national borders, suspend or restrict the exchange or trading of a particular currency, issue entirely new currencies to supplant old ones, order immediate settlement of a particular currency obligations, or order that trading in a particular currency be conducted for liquidation only. OTC Forex is traded on a number of non-US markets, which may be substantially more prone to periods of illiquidity than the United States markets due to a variety of factors.

Additionally, even where stop loss or limit orders are put in place to attempt to limit losses, these orders may not be executable in very illiquid markets, or may be filled at unforeseeably unfavorable price levels where illiquidity or extreme volatility prevent their more favorable execution.

Over-the-counter (“OTC”) spot and forward contracts in currencies are not traded on exchanges; rather, banks and FCM’s typically act as principals in this market. Because performance of spot and forward contracts on currencies is not guaranteed by any exchange or clearing house, the client is subject to counter-party risk — the risk that the principals with a trader, the trader’s bank or FCM, or the counter-parties with which the bank or FCM trades, will be unable or will refuse to perform with respect to such contracts. Furthermore, principals in the spot and forward markets have no obligation to continue to make markets in the spot and forward contracts traded.

In addition, the non-centralized nature of the Foreign Exchange market produces the following complications:

A bank or FCM may decline to execute an order in a currency market which it believes to present a higher than acceptable level of risk to its operations. Because there is no central clearing mechanism to guarantee OTC trades, each bank or FCM must apply its own risk analysis in deciding whether to participate in a particular market where its credit must stand behind each trade. Depending on the policies adopted by each counter-party, a given bank or FCM may decline to execute an order placed by a trader/customer. This has happened on occasion in the past, and will no doubt happen again, in response to volatile market conditions.

Because there is no central marketplace disseminating minute-by-minute time and sales reports, banks and FCMs must rely on their own knowledge of prevailing market prices in agreeing to an execution price. The execution price obtained for a trader/customer to a large extent will reflect the expertise of the bank or FCM in trading the particular currency. While the OTC interbank market as a whole is highly liquid, certain currencies, known as exotics, are less frequently traded by any but the largest dealers. For this reason, a less experienced counter-party may take longer to fill an order or may obtain an execution price that differs widely from what a more experienced or larger counter-party will obtain. As a consequence, two participants trading in the same markets through different counter-parties may achieve markedly different rates of return during times of high market volatility.

The financial failure of counter-parties could result in substantial losses. Again, when trading Foreign Currencies on an OTC basis, the trader/customer will be dealing with institutions as principals and institutions may be subject to losses or insolvency. In case of any such bankruptcy or loss, the trader might recover, even in respect of property specifically traceable to his or her account, only a pro rata share of all property available for distribution to all of the counter-party’s customers.

While that portion of a trader/customer’s assets deposited with an FCM with respect to regulated exchange traded futures will be subject to the limited regulatory protections afforded by the client segregation rules and procedures, customer funds deposited to secure or margin OTC Foreign Exchange trading will not have such protection, as FCM’s are exempt from substantial regulation under the Commodity Exchange Act for their activities as counter-party to non-exchange traded currency contracts.

Settlement risk occurs because of the difference of time zones on different continents. Consequently, currencies may be traded at different prices at different times during the trading day. Australian and New Zealand Dollars are credited first, then the Japanese Yen, followed by the European currencies and ending with the US Dollar. Therefore, payment may be made to a party that will declare insolvency or be declared insolvent, prior to that party executing its own payments.

In assessing credit risk, the trader must consider not only the market value of their currency portfolios, but also the potential exposure of these portfolios.

The potential exposure may be determined through probability analysis over the time to maturity of the outstanding position. The computerized systems currently available are very useful in implementing credit risk policies. Credit lines are easily monitored. In addition, the matching systems introduced in foreign exchange since April 1993, are used by traders for credit policy implementation as well. Traders input the total line of credit for a specific counter-party. During the trading session, the line of credit is automatically adjusted. If the line is fully used, the system will prevent the trader from further dealing with that counter-party. After maturity, the credit line reverts to its original level.